This article first appeared in Sifted’s Daily newsletter, sign up here.
It’s only been two weeks since French president Emmanuel Macron sent shockwaves across the country by calling a snap parliamentary election scheduled for the end of this month — but the campaign has already seen multiple plot twists. And none of them has reassured the tech sector.
Watching a crowd of investors and founders sipping on cocktails at a networking party last week, one VC told me: “I don’t think people realise how worrying the situation is.”
The far-right party Rassemblement National (RN) looks set to secure the majority of the vote, according to opinion polls. But a surprise coalition of left-wing parties formed a few days after the election was called, dubbed the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), is also gaining traction. It comprises the Socialist Party (PS), the Green Party (Europe Ecologie les Verts) and the French Communist Party (PCF). And, crucially, it also includes LFI (La France Insoumise) — a party that some critics consider to be far-left (although French institutions officially label it ‘left-wing’).
Polls place the NFP just behind the RN and ahead of Macron’s presidential camp. And while the outcome of the election is hard to predict — voters elect local MPs in 577 constituencies — one thing is certain: it’s not looking so good for the French president.
The prospect of a RN majority in Parliament raised concerns among techies early on. They’re worried the far-right party’s protectionism will turn away international investors; that its strict stance on immigration will deprive French tech from much-needed talent; and its euro-scepticism will send the wrong signal at a time when cooperation across the continent is needed to support innovation.
But the NFP is now also worrying some founders and investors. The coalition has promised a “break” with Macron’s economic policies, including some that were seen as particularly startup-friendly; it has committed, for instance, to overturning a number of tax reforms implemented by the president in 2018, which were found to have likely led to more company creation.
“It is hard to see how this will not lead entrepreneurs to move en masse their operations elsewhere,” French economist and MIT professor Olivier Blanchard posted on X, warning that the NFP’s programme will lead to “an economic catastrophe”.
In the tech sector, which is usually reluctant to get involved with political debates, calls to avoid voting for either side of the spectrum have multiplied in the past few days.
“[The election] has created an unprecedented risk that our country will be governed in the coming weeks by forces that offer withdrawal, shutting down and regression, or by forces that welcome confrontation, division and the radical transformation of our economy,” the founder of French unicorn Mirakl, Philippe Corrot, recently wrote in a statement that was signed by 73 other business leaders.
It’s impossible to predict the make up of the French parliament in two weeks: left-wing? Far-right? A coalition of left, right and Macron’s party? Or maybe another plot twist?
But some have already made their mind up.
“Either we’ve got an RN majority, and we’re fucked, or we’ve got an NFP majority, and we’re still fucked; or we have a government freeze,” I was told by the same VC last week.
“I’m currently raising a fund, and I’m seriously considering getting out of the country.”
